What is the Future of Science?

It’s impossible to predict the future of science precisely because no one knows what the future holds, but there are a few generalizations that seem plausible.

To begin with, science will most likely become more open source. The Public Library of Science already publishes six open access online journals, with PLoS Biology being the most popular. In the world of science, where a single journal subscription can cost hundreds of dollars per year, open access has the potential to greatly accelerate scientific progress. The popularity of open access journals and the ability to publish one’s papers on the internet demonstrates that there is a strong demand for it to continue.

As developing countries such as India and China begin to graduate tens of thousands of new scientists, science is expanding. This is kicking off unprecedented international scientific collaboration, though China still needs to do more to collaborate with scientists around the world. More scientists equates to more research, ideas, breakthroughs, and everything else. In a similar vein, global GDP is rising, as it has done since the Industrial Revolution, increasing the amount of money available to fund science. Countries around the world recognize that heavy investment in science and technology is required to keep their economies competitive.

Science is becoming more interdisciplinary and specialized at the same time. More brainpower is available to investigate both minutiae and the big picture as the number of scientists and their median level of knowledge grows. Big picture thinking aids the scientific establishment in allocating more resources to specializations that matter, so these two domains interact. Similarly, the establishment, as it always has been, is powerful and can tangle thousands of researchers in dead ends, appealing to older scientists who can’t let go. However, some ominous signs suggest that diversity and tolerance for dissent are gaining traction in science.

Finally, better instruments will be the focus of science in the future. Every year, billions upon billions of dollars are spent on improving scientific instruments. This includes particle accelerators such as the Large Hadron Collider (which will cost $5-10 billion USD), space telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (which will launch in 2013), a slew of new nanoscale microscopes, and low-cost gene sequencing technology that can read the genetic code of any animal on Earth.